Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) had a great fourth quarter with sales up 65% YoY, but will it ever beat the legacy automakers in terms of revenue? Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas certainly thinks so.
Jonas’ forecast for Tesla
According to Jonas, Tesla will be generating revenue more than Ford and General Motors combined by 2027.
The zero-sum game is hard to see today; should become obvious over the next 24 months.
The Morgan Stanley analyst “conservatively” forecasts the market share of Tesla in the United States to stand at 3.5% this year and predicts a 1,000 basis points increase in its U.S. market share by 2030. In his research note, Jonas wrote:
We estimate Tesla U.S. unit share reaches 10% by the end of 2026 and nearly 18% by 2030. We estimate Tesla share of U.S. wallet should reach 10% by 2025 and 23% by 2030.
GM and Ford to lose market share
Much of the gain in the market share of Tesla, he added, will come from the likes of Ford and General Motors losing share in the U.S.
He expects GM’s U.S. market share to fall from the current 14.6% to 14% by 2025 and less than 12% by the end of the decade. For Ford, Jonas forecasts just over 10% market share in the U.S. by 2030 versus 12.5% at present.
We forecast Tesla’s share of U.S. auto wallet (revenue share) to surpass GM by late 2026/early 2027.
Jonas has an “overweight” rating on TSLA with a price target of $1,300 that represents a 40% upside from here. Ford Motor is scheduled to report its quarterly results today, after the bell.
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