Inside Putin’s mindset: What team Trump can expect from Moscow when negotiating options on Russia-Ukraine war

Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected the proposal that reportedly came from President-elect Donald Trump’s team seeking to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, which will cross the four-year mark this coming February.

‘Of course, we are not satisfied with the proposals made on behalf of representatives of the president-elect’s team to postpone Ukrainian membership in NATO for 20 years, as well as to introduce a peacekeeping contingent of British and European forces to Ukraine,’ Lavrov said in an interview with TASS, the Russian government’s official news agency.

Lavrov’s statement likely foreshadows the aggressive posture that Russian President Vladimir Putin will assume with Trump regarding Ukraine. Coming to an agreement with Putin, even for such a strong negotiator as Trump, will likely be nearly impossible. Here’s why.

During his annual press conference last month, Putin had all but ruled out making a peace deal with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government. Responding to a journalist’s question about whether he had any preconditions to beginning negotiations on Ukraine, Putin denied having any pre-requisites. However, when clarifying his answer, Putin stated that Russia would ‘sign documents’ ‘only with representatives from legitimate authorities.’ 

He argued that Zelenskyy and his government were ‘illegitimate,’ explaining that ‘Ukraine’s Constitution does not include provisions for extending presidential authority even in wartime.’ Zelenskyy’s term indeed expired on May 20. ‘You know, if someone runs for elections and receives legitimacy, we will talk with any person, including Zelenskyy,’ Putin added.

An attorney by profession, Putin claimed that only Verkhovna Rada, the unicameral parliamentof Ukraine and its chairman, Ruslan Stefanchuk, were ‘legitimate,’ because Ukraine’s constitution does allow the extension of authorities for Rada during wartime. However, the Rada and its chairman ‘are completely under the head of the regime,’ he claimed, likely referring to the fact that Zelenskyy’s party, The Servant of the People, controls the majority in the body following the 2019 parliamentary elections. Putin is making the case that the illegitimacy of Zelenskyy, who is technically above Stefanchuk, makes the Rada and its decisions illegitimate. 

Putin also ruled out a cease-fire during his presser. A Russian journalist asked whether it was ‘feasible’ to ‘simply do a cease-fire at any minute,’ to ‘stop the war,’ making a reference to Trump and his Russia-Ukraine envoy, retired Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg, who he said talked about ending the war before Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20. 

Putin responded, ‘To suspend [combat operations] for a week – it means giving the adversary an opportunity to secure a foothold in his positions. To give him an opportunity to take a rest, obtain the necessary military hardware, munitions . . . ‘ Then, Putin claimed that ‘a relatively long period of truce will enable the adversary to obtain training and re-train,’ arguing in favor of maintaining momentum while the Russian forces are depleting ‘weapons systems, ammunition, munitions, and most importantly, personnel of the Ukrainian military.’

Putin feels confident that he can keep going until Ukraine capitulates or until the deal is made on Russia’s terms, which are unacceptable to Washington and highly likely even to Trump’s team. Putin wants to keep 20% of Ukraine’s territory, plus Crimea, legal guarantees that Ukraine becomes a neutral state with no path to NATO membership, U.S. and Western sanctions removed from Russia and the recognition by the West of annexed territories as Russian. 

Putin is confident that he can drive a hard bargain, even with Trump. From a combat potential standpoint — weapons, troops, defense economics and military-industrial production capacity – Russia, which the Pentagon itself considers a ‘near peer competitor’ to the U.S. military, holds an overwhelming strategic advantage over Ukraine. With Russia’s population three times larger than Ukraine’s, the manpower also massively favors Moscow.

Putin has been mobilizing additional forces non-stop throughout this conflict, including with covert means. Russia has already fielded a 15% larger force than it had at the start of the war. In September, Putin ordered, by decree, another increase of the Russian armed forces, adding 180,000 troops. The Russian military is now at 2.38 million people, of which 1.5 million are active servicemen. Putin demonstrated that he can source personnel from his allies, having added 11,000 North Korean soldiers to the Russian troops fighting in Ukraine.

Putin was even taunting Trump’s team, albeit indirectly. The Russian dictator challenged Washington to a ’21st-century high-tech duel’ to test U.S. air defense and missile defense systems against the Russian Oreshnik hypersonic missile, which would target Kyiv. ‘We are ready for such an experiment. But is the other side ready? Let’s stage such an experiment, such a technological duel and see what happens. I think it would be useful for us and for the American side.’

Putin signaled that to begin talks, Trump would need to reach out to him first. Responding to an NBC journalist’s question about when Putin would meet with Trump and what kind of concessions he would offer, given that he ‘will be a weaker leader,’ Putin said, ‘First of all, I don’t know when he and I will meet, because he is not saying anything about that. I haven’t spoken with him for more than four years.’ Putin added that he is ‘ready’ to speak with Trump ‘any time,’ if he wants it’. 

Putin denied that he would be in a weaker position, stating that he has a ‘different point of view,’ stating, ‘I believe that Russia has become much stronger for the past two-three years. Why? Because we are becoming a truly sovereign nation. We are not dependent on many.’ Indeed, in anticipation of and in the aftermath of Western sanctions placed on Moscow, in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin has been sanction-proofing Russia’s economy and reducing its reliance on foreign, especially Western, technology. 

Putin’s measures included launching an import-substitution program across Russia’s manufacturing industries to spur indigenous production, de-dollarization of the Russian sovereign wealth fund and foreign exchange reserves, spearheading BRICS and an initiative aimed at the replacement of the U.S. dollar with an alternative currency as the premier currency of international exchange, and strengthening economic and military relations with non-Western countries both U.S. allies, such as India, and adversaries, such as China, Iran and North Korea.

Given that Putin will almost certainly play hard ball and the limited leverage the U.S. has with Russia – unlike China, for instance – Team Trump will have to look for creative solutions, if the master of ‘The Art of the Deal’ is to fulfill his campaign promise to bring peace to Ukraine.